As citizens and enlightened professional you want to base choices on facts and a well reasoned approach to decision making. I clearly understand that global politics may preclude that process, but at some point in time we really should make a correct decision.

The Ukrainian “crisis” is less of a crisis when you understand the underlying details.

1. The Ukraine became an nation independent from Russia on 24 Aug 1991.
2. The Ukraine Constitution was ratified 28 June 1996. It has since been amended twice Dec-2004 and Sept-2008.
   1. The Ukrainian Constitution has written provisions for the impeachment of the head of state. Those provisions have been amended or are presently in the process of being amended.
3. Roughly 78% of its population is Ukranian and 17% is Russian, the remaining 8% is other.
   1. Part of the cultural dynamics of the Ukraine are driven by attempts at various points since 1991 to establish Ukranian as the national language and eliminate Russian to the detremin of ethnic Russians. It still remains a major internal irritant to this day. The perception by ethnic Russians is that they are and will continue to be discriminated against.
4. Ukrainians go to the polls to elect Rada (Parliament) and a President. The next Presidential election is scheduled for 25 May 2014. The weakest voter turnout in Ukranian history was in the neighborhood of 49%. Typical turn out is in the 50%-64% range. At it’s lowest point Ukrainian turnout is higher than that of our own country.
5. You’ll hear mentioned from time to time an event called the Orange Revolution which took place from late November 2004 to January 2005.
   1. The Orange Revolution came after the 2004 Presidential elections where two candidates Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych (this was the guy ousted in the recent coup)ran in opposition. The Orange Revolution was spearheaded by Yulia Tymoshenko – leader All-Ukrainian Union “Fatherland” party. Before leaving the Orange Revolution let’s talk about Yulia for a second. She served as Prime Minister from Dec-2007 to March-2010 and in 2005 from January to September. Yulia, was accused of embezzlement and convicted in Oct 2011. She served time. During her time in office she became one of the wealthiest individuals in the Ukraine. Interestingly enough, she made her money in the natural gas business at a time when the Russian Federation was complaining that gas and oil was being syphoned off as it passed through Ukrainian pipelines on its way to the EU.
   2. Victor Yanukovych won the run-off election in 2004 but as a result of the Orange Revolution, domestic and UN international inspectors were brought in to validate the results. Although no clear proof that the 2004 elections were rigged, the Orange Revolution succeeded in having the results of the 2004 election annulled. The Ukrainian Supreme Court ordered that a new vote be held and in that election Yushchenko received 52% of the vote and Yanukovych  got 44%. Two presidential elections have been supervised by international and domestic monitors with no proof of vote tampering.
   3. In 2010 Yushchenko was defeated by Yanukovych in a supervised election and named president.

Alright, without declaring an Eastern European History major, this should give you a reasonable amount of background. So now let’s talk about the Russia piece of the equation.

1. Russia has vital interests in the Ukraine. They come in two forms. First, all of the Russian pipelines carrying oil and natural gas to the EU run through the Ukraine. Second, The port of Sevastopol (In the Crimea), where Russia has a large military installation, is Russia’s only warm water port, that’s available 365 days a year, with access to the Mediterranean Sea, Suez, etc.
   1. Gas and Oil exports account for roughly 20%-30% of the Russian Federation’s economy. It also accounts for a large chuck of its hard currency.
      1. crude petroleum oils: US$173,668,305,000, other petroleum oils: US$91,529,091,000 and light petroleum oils and preparations: US$17,638,522,000.
      2. Natural gas (liquid state): $5,510,958,000.
      3. In total, energy exports excluding coal account for roughly $288.3 billion dollars.
   2. Sevastopol  is the biggest non-freezing commercial and fishing seaport on the Black Sea.
      1. Foreign trade in goods: 109 million USD of exports, 41 million USD of imports, with the trade balance being + 57 million USD. So it’s a busy port with the Russian Federation accounting for the lions share of both imports and exports.
      2. Lastly, Sevastopol has been home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet dating back to Katherine The Great.

Other factors to consider.

1. The infamous Victoria Nuland & Geoffrey Pyatt conversation You can read the actual transcript and BBC analysis.
2. Reading the transcript and listening to the published piece of the conversation, it was pretty clear to me that Victoria was not trying to give Geoffrey a woody.

As you read this, keep in mind that nothing has been stitched into a story, I am simply laying out facts that you may or may not be familiar with. This coming Friday, we’ll give you what we think the story should be, but we encourage you to form your own.

Have a great weekend, be safe and visit our site often. Send us your questions and we will always endeavor to answer them!

T.G.I.F.